Well, we've pointed this out from the beginning - the fact that trade might be a far more important factor in transmission of H5N1 among poultry than migratory birds.
In 2005, we started focusing more of our program strategy on trade and travel after plotting outbreaks and noticing how they often follow major roads or railways! Since then, many researchers have put forth evidence for these points 1) once H5N1 enters a country or region, most of the spread of H5N1 is related to trade 2) wild birds may introduce the virus to a country, but trade has been equally important in establishing the virus in new areas.
Now, an article from Bird Life Interational goes even further and suggests that in many cases migratory birds were actually the victims of a virus that was already present.
It's an interesting theory and well written article, check it out and let us know what you think!
http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2007/03/avian_flu_report.html
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